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Croatia: Policy Options for Further Pension System Reform

Autor: Banco Mundial
Año: 2011
Resumen: In response to prolonged recession, in April 2010 the Croatian Government adopted an Economic Recovery Program to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support faster recovery of the private sector. A central element of the program is comprehensive overhaul of the pension insurance system to ensure long-term fiscal and social sustainability as the population ages. The authorities have asked the World Bank to both support the reform design and develop a pension simulation model to support decision-making process. This technical note is intended to facilitate discussion on ways to improve the entire pension system. This note assesses the impact of the recent pension measures and how they could be combined with other measures to make the system sustainable in the long run. (...) In these circumstances raising the second pillar rate would be a significant stretch. However, a rate rise can be justified by (i) higher future replacement rates and lower implicit pension debt compared to realigning the basic pension alone; (ii) declining PAYG expenditures throughout the simulation period; and (iii) a declining financing requirement for privileged pensions and the second pillar shortfall. Delaying a rise in the second pillar contribution rate would negatively affect future multi-pillar replacement rates and burden future generations with an even larger problem. An alternative would be to increase the pension contribution rate to support the lost revenues due to transition cost. However, the higher the contribution rate, the higher the labor cost, the lower the competitiveness, and the larger the shadow economy. This should therefore be considered a measure of last resort unless the increase comes at the expense of other contributions currently charged on wages. Finally, options for protecting a fall in replacement rates for current pensioners and PAYG-only participants should be discussed only when the fiscal space would allow such interventions.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Reformas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Notas de Pensiones
Idioma:

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Croatia: Policy Options for Further Pension System Reform

Autor: Banco Mundial
Año: 2011
Resumen: In response to prolonged recession, in April 2010 the Croatian Government adopted an Economic Recovery Program to safeguard macroeconomic stability and support faster recovery of the private sector. A central element of the program is comprehensive overhaul of the pension insurance system to ensure long-term fiscal and social sustainability as the population ages. The authorities have asked the World Bank to both support the reform design and develop a pension simulation model to support decision-making process. This technical note is intended to facilitate discussion on ways to improve the entire pension system. This note assesses the impact of the recent pension measures and how they could be combined with other measures to make the system sustainable in the long run. (...) In these circumstances raising the second pillar rate would be a significant stretch. However, a rate rise can be justified by (i) higher future replacement rates and lower implicit pension debt compared to realigning the basic pension alone; (ii) declining PAYG expenditures throughout the simulation period; and (iii) a declining financing requirement for privileged pensions and the second pillar shortfall. Delaying a rise in the second pillar contribution rate would negatively affect future multi-pillar replacement rates and burden future generations with an even larger problem. An alternative would be to increase the pension contribution rate to support the lost revenues due to transition cost. However, the higher the contribution rate, the higher the labor cost, the lower the competitiveness, and the larger the shadow economy. This should therefore be considered a measure of last resort unless the increase comes at the expense of other contributions currently charged on wages. Finally, options for protecting a fall in replacement rates for current pensioners and PAYG-only participants should be discussed only when the fiscal space would allow such interventions.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Reformas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Notas de Pensiones
Idioma:

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Mongolia Policy Options for Pension Reform

Autor: Banco Mundial
Año: 2011
Resumen: This report was prepared in response to a request by the Mongolian authorities for an evaluation of the Mongolian pension system and policy reform options. The report identifies a number of design weaknesses in the current pension insurance scheme and needs for reform in response to changes in the Mongolian economy. The summary of this report provides a brief synopsis for key policymakers of the rationale for reform and policy options considered. The main text responds to requests by the Mongolian authorities for the Bank's assessment. It considers the design architecture and parameters of the pension insurance scheme, the design of non- contributory elderly social assistance, pension provisions for herders and the rationale and design options for a pension reserve fund. The appendices provide more detailed analysis for technical staff including current pension insurance parameters; needs and policy options for herders and other informal sector workers; options for establishing a pension reserve fund; and elaboration of the actuarial modeling methodology employed, key assumptions and parameters, and detailed findings. Mongolia's economy, labor market and fiscal position are undergoing rapid changes as a result of growth in the mining sector. These changes present both challenges and opportunities for reform in pension provisions

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Reformas de Pensiones
Tipo de Publicación: Informes
Idioma:

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Russian Federation: The Demographic Transition and Its Implications for Adult Learning and Long-Term Care Policies

Autor: Banco Mundial
Año: 2011
Resumen: This report describes the demographic transition in the Russian Federation and its implications for adult learning and long-term care policies. The population of Russia is aging and declining rapidly compared to other European nations. Russia's current age structure results from decades of complex demographic trends that have created a population structure with increasingly fewer young people. Women are having fewer children and are waiting longer to have children. Russia's mortality remains higher than in other developed societies. This high mortality is due to an unusually high incidence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and injuries among adult men. Two key challenges face Russia. The first challenge is whether public expenditure on pensions and health care will become unsustainable as the size of the elderly population increases. The second challenge is whether declining population sizes will reduce the size of the labor force and hence reduce economic growth.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Ahorro Previsional
Tipo de Publicación: Informes
Idioma:

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Labor Market Transitions and Social Security in Colombia

Autor: Cuesta, Jose; Bohorquez, Camilo.
Año: 2011
Resumen: This paper quantifies the magnitude of transitions across occupational categories in Colombia, a country with high unemployment and informality but quickly increasing its social security coverage for health. The analysis makes use of a panel of households between 2008 and 2009, representative of the main metropolitan areas in the country. Results confirm previous evidence found in Colombia and elsewhere in the region that transitions between occupations are large and asymmetric: they are disproportionally more likely to happen from formal to informal occupations than vice versa. The paper finds for the first time that such transitions are also different for salaried workers compared with the self-employed, as well as by poverty status of the worker. Salaried workers are more likely to transition first into other salaried jobs, while self-employed are more likely to transition into unemployment or out of the labor force. There are marked differences in the profiles of transitioning and non-transitioning workers, both in terms of socioeconomic characteristics and social security coverage. Causal analysis shows that affiliation to social security on health deters occupational transitions, while pension insurance does not. Hence, high-volume transitions may not be crisis-specific phenomena, but rather associated with contributive and non-contributive social security mechanisms that incentivize informality, and workers' preferences for informal jobs. The debate on labor market and social security reforms needs to take these features of transitions into account.

Fuente: Banco Mundial
Clasificación: Mercado Laboral
Tipo de Publicación: Documentos de Trabajo
Idioma:

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